[Russia’s geographical disadvantage dates back to its founding times, and indeed much of Russian history with military and politics is interconnected with geography. Land, trade, naval bases, the military, are all part of the puzzle. Perhaps this is why Russia has always been somewhat “obsessed” with expanding territorially, whether it was during the Cold War, or modern days with Crimea.]
In Churchill’s famous Iron Curtain Speech (1946), what was an urge for the West to remain militarily strong was also an interesting observation of Russia (USSR at the time of course). For Churchill, he was convinced that “there is nothing [Russia] admire[s] so much as strength, and there is nothing for which they have less respect than for weakness, especially military weakness.” An imperative choice of language, but why is Russia in particular obsessed with military and territory strength? And how does this explain their motive behind the annexation of Crimea? These questions I will attempt to explain in this piece of writing by incorporating elements of geopolitics.
Russia’s Geography
[For the purpose of ease, the name Russia will be referenced for the country throughout]
In the 9th century, Russia then was still a loose federation of East Slavic tribes located in the area Kievan Rus’ (now Ukraine), but after the Mongols overran it after continuous attacks in the region in the 13th century, Russia (back then with the name Grand Principality of Muscovy) then fledged and relocated around Moscow. Yet this share of land was indefensible -- deserts, no mountains, and only a few rivers. Surrounded by flatland, the Mongols were a serious threat to Russia in the South and East.
Then came Russia’s first Tsar -- Ivan the Terrible. His strong foreign policy stance was “Attack as Defence”, which was the expansion by consolidation at home before moving outwards and this process was passed on and accelerated by his successors. Soon, Russia had control over the East Urals, the Caspian Sea, the Arctic Circle, the Black Sea, the Caucasus Mountains (a barrier for the Mongols) etc. Fast forward to 20th Century Russia in the form of communist USSR, territorial strength stretched from the Pacific to Berlin.
To summarise it simply, essentially Moscow would never be able to survive on its own due to its ease of being under attack. With territory expansions, a partial bufferzone and a hinterland for Russia was now in place. As Moscow was now somewhat protected, trade was the next geographical issue on the agenda.
Problem with Trade
Russia does possess some major ports such as Murmansk in the Arctic and Vladivostok in the Pacific. However, the former freezes for several months each year with the later ice-locked for about 4 months per year and is enclosed by the Sea of Japan. This severely prevents Russia from operating as a global power. Referring to an historical event, the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan 1979 in support for the Communist Afghan Government against anti-Communist Muslim guerillas gave hope to the Russian dream of its army being able to “wash their boots in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean” (words of Vladmir Zhirinovsky) with a port that does not freeze over winter.
Siberia is a vast region of land situated in East Russia. It is Russia’s “treasure chest” stocked of mineral resources, with notable deposits of coal, petroleum, natural gas, diamonds, iron ore and gold. Yet this land only enjoys very short summers and long brutally cold winters, making it a harsh land to operate and even live on, adding to the difficulty of trade and farming. Only 2 railway networks run west to east: the Trans-Siberian and the Baikal-Amur Mainline.
Nonetheless, Russia still has its hand on the Port of Sevastopol (located in Crimea) -- the only true major warm-water port. But this comes with issues as well. Its access from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean was restricted by the 1936 Montreux Convention which gave NATO member Turkey control of the Bosporus (a narrow strait connecting the two), meaning that Russian naval ships would not be permitted in an event of conflict.
Not just important for trade, Russia’s naval base in Sevastopol is among the best naval bases in the Black Sea. It is a symbol of protection and allows Russia to project its might. Despite Russia having control until 2042, recent political events have made the Kremlin increasingly concerned about this strategic area’s future.
This is why Crimea is critical for Russia in terms of strategic defense capabilities, thus having Crimean leaders possessing similar ideologies and cooperating is crucial.
The Annexation of Crimea
President Yanukovych of Ukraine had always played both sides: in one direction flirting with the West, and the other paying homage to Moscow, thus was tolerated by Putin. But when Yanukovych almost signed a massive trade agreement with the EU which could ultimately lead to membership, Putin had his mindset change as Ukraine crept towards the red line.
Putin then made an offer to Yanukovych which was not refused, and the EU was left behind. This then sparked protests that eventually overthrew Yanukovych.
By mid-February 2014, many urban areas were no longer controlled by the government and on 22nd February the President fled, with anti-Russian factions, some pro-Western and pro-Fascists taking over the government.
With the fear of many things mentioned previously, Putin had no choice but to annex Crimea containing many Russian speaking Ukraininans, but most important, the Port of Sevastopol.
Aftermath & What to Expect
Kiev (capital of Ukraine) no longer had sufficient strength to prevent further modernisation of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, and indeed Russia will continue to boost its warships and infrastructure, upgrading its military strength and presence.
As a response, the US might have to encourage NATO members such as Romania to boost its fleet in the Black Sea whilst relying on Turkey to hold the line across the Bosporus.
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